@InProceedings{ZepkaJrOsSara:2012:InInCo,
               author = "Zepka, G. S. and Jr. Osmar, Pinto and Saraiva, A. C. V.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Influence of Initial Conditions on Lightning Forecasting Using the 
                         WRF Model",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2012",
         organization = "International Conference on Lightning Detection, 22.",
             abstract = "Improved forecasts of the timing and location of thunderstorms and 
                         associated lightning are of great interest to all persons 
                         concerned with protecting life and property. Particularly during 
                         the warm season, it is essential the use of highresolution 
                         forecast tools to provide a detailed description of the mesoscale 
                         weather features, which are frequently responsible by the primary 
                         forcing convection. Comparing to the past, the skill of numerical 
                         weather prediction has improved enormously, mainly because of 
                         substantial increases in computational power and more efficient 
                         numerical techniques. Moreover, due to the chaotic behavior of the 
                         atmosphere (Lorenz, 1965), considerable efforts are continuously 
                         employed for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of 
                         the physical processes within the models. However, in terms of the 
                         regional models, one complex limitation is the uncertainty with 
                         respect the initial and lateral boundary conditions provided by 
                         the global models (Warner et al., 1997). The uncertainties 
                         associated with the model initialization can decrease the 
                         reliability of the deterministic forecasts. Since it is not easy 
                         to exactly separate the errors due to the initial conditions from 
                         those due to model deficiencies, there has been considerable 
                         interest in the investigation of the sensitivity of forecast 
                         errors to initial conditions. The present study examines the 
                         impact of initializing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 
                         model (Skamarock et al., 2008) with Global Forecast System (GFS) 
                         analyses and forecasts fields of 1 and 0.5- degree grid increment 
                         resolutions. Short-range simulations of ten thunderstorm cases 
                         were performed with high space WRF model resolution to develop a 
                         methodology to qualitatively forecast lightning occurrence with 
                         few hours in advance during the summer season in southeastern 
                         Brazil. The influence of the same initialization dataset but with 
                         different resolutions over the WRF model will be evaluated 
                         comparing the lightning forecasting maps for two additional 
                         thunderstorm cases, one without lightning occurrence, and 
                         calculating statistical scores to help in the forecasting 
                         verification.",
  conference-location = "Broomfield",
      conference-year = "2-3 Apr. 2012",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Influence of Initial Conditions on Lightning l.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}